DTC genomics needs a new category of entertainment products that do NOT rely on accurate predictions

(Part 1 of 2. To see Part 2, click here.)

The trajectory for direct to consumer (DTC) genomics was looking bright a few years ago. Ancestry testing reached a scale of 26 million consumers being tested, a range of various new products were hitting the market, most notably BRCA testing by Color Genomics, and this culminated in the launch of Helix as an app store platform to provide consumers access to a range of products with just one saliva sample. The promise of DTC products is the ability to access a new and repeatable payment source for the genomics industry, tapping into retail dollars instead of relying on research/block/investor funding or healthcare reimbursements.

But now DTC is going through a quiet period. Color Genomics appear to be investing more into population programs suggesting enterprise markets remain more attractive. Helix likewise has pivoted into similar markets as their original app store business model floundered. Suppliers for collection kits and testing consumables have duly cut their sales forecasts in DTC segments. What happened to the retail dollar?

While demand for ancestry waned, none of the emerging genomic tests took a strong enough hold in their respective markets and crossed the chasm to become mainstream products. There are broadly two types of these tests. There are tests backed by reasonable evidence, including tests for pharmacogenomics, “incidental” findings (though this term doesn’t fit in the DTC context), and reproductive carrier screening. But many of these tests have limited product/market fit in a DTC setting as customers mostly continue manage their healthcare through traditional pathways. Companies in this space have tempered expectations, choosing to focus more on traditional payers. There are also tests where there could be a stronger product/market fit such as reporting on fitness and nutrition optimization, however the results provide limited utility and importantly the evidence for these tests lack strength. These products have mostly been shunned as an embarrassment to the genomics industry.

I propose that until DTC healthcare takes off, the next wave of products need to be more like ancestry, where less perfect science can still achieve product/market fit. Consumers have taken DNA tests out of curiosity, sometimes a bigger motivation than health reasons. They also look for ways to connect and engage with others, both in person and on social media. The “job to be done” assigned to a DTC product may not necessarily be to help consumers live more optimized lives, but to be entertained and connected.

This is exactly what ancestry testing provides. The tests may be inconsistent with hilarious anecdotes of its failures, but ancestry testing delivers discussion and entertainment, on a subject that is important particularly to Americans, and goes beyond giving back a “report” to something that help their customers connect with others. (Their potential relatives.)

The new wave of tests likewise need to go beyond providing a report that has value in its prediction capabilities, instead focusing on delivering entertainment value. This allows an entrepreneur to dip into the GWAS catalog that lists over 300 publications in non-health related areas. To be clear, all these publications need further validation, but I propose that some fraction of these could still be used for creating novel entertainment products. Presenting these results can’t be in the bland manner of a private report as existing DTC products do, but will need to be much, much more creative.

The results of these tests shouldn’t be consumed in isolation but should be used in areas of gaming, expanding social influence, or connecting people over what they have in common. Most importantly, it needs to create discussion points that are totally unrelated to health. I’ll expand more on this in Part 2 of this 2-part series, with an article titled “The next wave of consumer genomic products need to be cheaper, leaner, and multiplayer”. It will no doubt attract condescending smirks from those who think genomics should only be based on well-validated science. But given how the DTC market has floundered, some original ideas are warranted.